Know Your Odds Before You Pay For Another Challenge
Upload your trade history and discover your real probability of passing a funded challenge using Monte Carlo simulations and professional statistical analysis.
Report Preview
Uploaded Strategy
Pass Rate
Calculated
From simulations
Risk of Ruin
Calculated
Rule failures
Expected Drawdown
Calculated
Average worst path
Funding Probability Score
0-100
Risk-adjusted estimate
Probability Distribution
Final balance outcomes
Monte Carlo Equity Curves
Sample simulated challenge paths
The Problem
Most Traders Fail Without Knowing Their Numbers
A funded challenge is not just a trading contest. It is a rules-based risk system.
Buying Challenges Blindly
Most traders pay for evaluations without knowing whether their real trade distribution can survive the rules.
Ignoring Drawdowns
Profitability alone is not enough. Daily and total drawdown rules often decide the outcome first.
Misinterpreting Backtests
A profitable historical curve can hide fragile sequencing risk and low pass probability.
Poor Risk Management
Position sizing decisions are made without quantifying failure paths, volatility or downside clustering.
The Solution
Turn Trade History Into Statistical Confidence
Funding Probability helps you evaluate challenge readiness like a risk desk, not a casino.
Funding Probability
Convert your trade history into a clear probability score for challenge success under real rules.
Monte Carlo Simulation
Stress-test thousands of possible trade sequences to reveal pass, fail and unfinished outcomes.
Professional Risk Analytics
Measure drawdown exposure, expectancy, risk of ruin and the distribution of final balances.
Workflow
How It Works
Upload a supported export, select the challenge rules, and review the simulated risk report.
Upload Trade History
Import CSV, Excel or platform reports.
Run Statistical Analysis
Simulate challenge paths and risk limits.
Receive Funding Probability Report
Review pass rate, drawdown and downside outcomes.
Dashboard Preview
A risk desk for funded challenge decisions
Preview pass probability, downside exposure and distribution outcomes before paying for another evaluation.
Report Preview
Uploaded Strategy
Pass Rate
Calculated
From simulations
Risk of Ruin
Calculated
Rule failures
Expected Drawdown
Calculated
Average worst path
Funding Probability Score
0-100
Risk-adjusted estimate
Probability Distribution
Final balance outcomes
Monte Carlo Equity Curves
Sample simulated challenge paths
Principles
Built for serious evaluation decisions
Probability first
Challenge decisions are evaluated through simulated outcomes, not confidence or hype.
Rules matter
Profit targets, drawdown limits and drawdown type are part of the analysis input.
No guarantees
Reports are statistical estimates based on uploaded history and selected assumptions.
FAQ
Questions before you analyze
Straight answers, no hype.
Does this guarantee I pass a challenge?
No. It estimates probability from your trade distribution and the challenge rules. It is risk intelligence, not a promise.
Which platforms will be supported?
The importer is fixture-tested for CSV, Excel, generic HTML, MT4, MT5, TradingView, NinjaTrader, TopstepX, Apex/NinjaTrader and FTMO/MT5 style reports. Real anonymized exports should still be added before claiming broad production compatibility.
Is the dashboard connected to the backend?
The upload report uses the live analysis API. The saved-reports dashboard still needs report storage and user accounts.
Why Monte Carlo?
Because trade order matters. Monte Carlo helps reveal sequencing risk that static backtests often hide.